Trade, Power, and Populism: The Convergence of Global Power and Political Paralysis
By Kemi Osukoya | Oct. 7, 2025
WASHINGTON— The handshake between President Donald J. Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney at the Oval Office on Tuesday was meant to project confidence — two leaders pledging to “get the best deal for both countries,” sending a much-needed positive signal from Washington to Ottawa that all is copacetic between their two friendly neighboring countries.
But behind the smiles and praises, Washington was edging deeper into crisis. Now in its second week, the U.S. government shutdown has sidelined more than 700,000 federal employees and frozen key trade and regulatory functions, amplifying uncertainty for investors and global partners, including in Africa.
The Director of the White House National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett, told the Africa Bazaar magazine that the shutdown is estimated to cost the U.S. government $15 billion weekly in lost Gross Domestic Product, which would have a significant negative impact on the U.S. economy.
Analysts warn that the economic ripple effects from the shutdown would extend far beyond North America, reaching into Africa’s export markets.
As President Trump already outlined in his “America First” approach to trade policy agenda, his comments-including during a meeting with Carney on Tuesday continue to reflect that broader shift in U.S. economic policy—one that prizes leverage and trade wins over predictability.
A Meeting Framed by Gridlock
Tuesday’s White House meeting marked Mr. Carney’s second Official Working visit since taking office earlier this year. His first, in May, focused on tariffs. Tuesday’s agenda builds upon that as well as centers on bilateral trade, the future of the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) and broader trade coordination amid global economic volatility.
“We’re working on some very good ideas,” President Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “We want to make our cars here. At the same time, we want Canada to do well. I think we’ll get there.”
The president described the two nations as having a “natural business conflict,” particularly in steel and autos, but said “that’s what friends have—competition.”
AFFILIATE PARTNERS’ PRODUCTS
When asked whether the U.S. would revisit the USMCA, Trump replied: “We’ll look at it. Maybe we renegotiate, maybe we take a better path for each country. We’ll do what’s best for both.”
Mr. Carney, a former central banker known for a steady hand, kept the focus on cooperation. “Canada is the largest foreign investor in the United States,” he said. “We’ve invested more than $500 billion over the last five years, and that’s a figure we expect to grow to $8 trillion if the right framework is in place.”
He added, “There are areas where we compete, but far more where we are stronger together. That’s the spirit of our partnership.”
The two leaders also said they plan to discuss the current deal being negotiated in Egypt to end the ongoing two-year-long deadly war between Israel and Hamas.
Shutdown Deepens the Uncertainty
Beyond the Oval Office, the political impasse in Washington continues to weigh on markets. Late Monday, efforts to pass temporary funding measures failed in the Senate, keeping much of the government shuttered. At the heart of the dispute: budget negotiations between Congressional Democrats, Republicans and the Trump administration over healthcare funding and federal spending priorities.
Asked about the growing number of furloughed employees, Mr. Trump said, “A lot of things will be eliminated—a lot of jobs will never come back. But we’re cutting waste and bringing efficiency back to Washington.”
The Office of Management and Budget recently withdrew a policy guaranteeing back pay for furloughed federal workers once funding is restored. Democrats argue the move violates the Government Employees Fair Treatment Act of 2019.
“Federal workers shouldn’t be collateral damage in a political standoff,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D., Md.), who co-authored the law.
The Africa Bazaar asked the White House for comments but was told that due to staff shortages caused by the ongoing government shutdown, there may be delays in getting a response. The White House press team is operating on a skeleton staff.
For global investors, the shutdown adds another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile trade environment. The Department of Commerce, U.S. Trade Representative, and Department of Treasury and other Federal agencies are all operating at reduced capacity, slowing tariff reviews, export licensing, and bilateral trade negotiations.
Global Ripples: Trade at Half-Speed
While Tuesday’s meeting centered on North America, economists say the aftershocks extend much further. Both the U.S. and Canada are major trade and development partners with African economies.
Canada’s trade with Africa in 2024 was over $15 billion, a 30 percent increase with a pledge to increase economic partnerships across the continent with a new $4.5 billion investment over the next five years under its global Africa strategy program.
In Africa, where U.S. trade reached $104.9 billion in goods and services in 2024, the combination of a U.S. shutdown and uncertain trade leadership is raising alarms.
At the heart of the concern is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a cornerstone of U.S.–Africa economic relations that is up for renewal.
‘Africa has a chance to turn this disruption into momentum,”
The U.S. pause leaves African exporters with unpredictability, even if trade flows continue, regulatory delays have already slowed deals and disrupted confidence.
A prolonged shutdown could further delay bilateral trade talks, including the ongoing U.S.–Kenya agreement, regulatory processes, such as tariff exclusion requests and export control reviews, customs and documentation approvals, leading to longer shipment times and higher costs. As well as other loan guarantees for businesses through the U.S. Export-Import Bank and trade missions.
Due to their reliance on consistent U.S. trade systems—permits, tariffs, certifications, African exporters to the U.S. are most vulnerable “Once those freeze, business relationships freeze too,” experts said.
An Opening for Africa Amid A Shifting Trade Order
Trump’s Oval Office remarks underscored his view that America’s economic strength comes from controlling its own production. “We’ve been the king of being taken advantage of,” he said. “That’s over. Other countries will pay their fair share—or we’ll make sure they do.”
That approach, rooted in tariff leverage and deregulation, continues to redefine global trade norms. For Canada, it means managing a neighbor that treats alliance as competition. For emerging economies such as those in Africa, it means navigating a less predictable partner.
As Washington sinks deeper into political paralysis—marked by a government shutdown, rising protectionism and stalled trade policy—analysts say Africa may be on the brink of a pivotal trade realignment, if they play their cards right.
The current U.S. dysfunction, though poses short-term risks for African exporters, the turmoil could ultimately serve as a powerful catalyst: pushing African governments to fast-track tariffs alignment, streamline customs and scale up logistics reforms under the African Continental Free Trade Area.
‘Africa has a chance to turn this disruption into momentum,” said a Nairobi-based trade economist. “As the U.S. market becomes less predictable, that makes regional integration not just a development goal—but a strategic necessity.”
AfCFTA, which brings together 54 nations under a single market, aims to slash intra-African tariffs by 90% and create a common customs regime. If implemented effectively, it could offset the loss of preferential U.S. market access under uncertain programs like AGOA, now in limbo by the shutdown.
Beyond AGOA, Africa’s regional blocs—such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)—stand to benefit from shifting global trade flows. As tariffs and political risk cloud traditional export routes to the U.S. and Europe, investors are eyeing Africa’s emerging trade hubs for new manufacturing and supply chain bases.
“With the right frameworks, COMESA countries, in particular, could position themselves as stable gateways,’ said an Africa Trade Expert. “They offer the predictability global investors crave.”
The broader shift isn’t just about diversifying trade—it’s about leverage. With the U.S. adopting a more transactional approach to trade, African economies—for the last decade have been increasingly turning Eastward, particularly to China and India, for infrastructure financing and long-term stability.
China’s Belt and Road initiative—which has its own global agenda that might not always be in the long-term best interests of Africa — is already filling in the gaps left by Washington’s policy drift.
Despite AfCFTA’s promise, regional integration remains sluggish. Non-tariff barriers, weak infrastructure and overlapping memberships between blocs like COMESA and ECOWAS threaten to dilute progress. Without concrete reforms, Africa risks trading one form of dependency for another decade of fragmentation.
African policy analysts say Washington shutdown should serve as a wake-up call for African leaders to move decisively now to reshape the continent’s economic future on African terms.
Trump told reporters that Carney and Canada “will walk away happy” after their meeting.
