EDITORIAL

COUNTERTERRORISM | GEOECONOMICS

Twenty-five years ago today, the world watched in disbelief as the U.S came under the deadliest terrorist attack on American soil.

On September 11, 2001, 19 al-Qaeda terrorists hijacked four commercial airplanes, crashing two into New York’s World Trade Center, one into the Pentagon and another into a field in Pennsylvania after passengers fought back.

2,977 people from more than 90 nations were killed. Of those, 2,753 died in New York, 184 at the Pentagon and 40 aboard Flight 93.

Today, government officials, business leaders, first responders, survivors and families of those who died will gather at the 9/11 Memorial in lower Manhattan, the Pentagon and in Pennsylvania to remember those whose lives were lost and those whose lives were permanently changed by the attacks.

But 25 years later, September 11 is no longer simply a date Americans remember. It is a marker of how dramatically the global security, political and economic landscape has change and this year’s anniversary comes at another extraordinary moment.

25 years later, America is at war again.

The U.S is now more than six months into its war with Iran, a conflict that began amid concerns over Iran’s nuclear program and the potential threat posed by its nuclear capabilities.

President Donald Trump, who initially described the war as a quick incursion into Iran said the objective of the military campaign is to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran has maintained that its nuclear program is peaceful.

Six months later, the conflict has already moved beyond the battlefield into consumers wallets.

Oil prices have risen, global energy supplies have been disrupted and businesses around the world are dealing with the economic consequences of instability in some of the world’s most important energy and shipping corridors.

The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of the global oil supplies normally moves, has become a major pressure point. The conflict has also affected the Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea corridor, another critical artery for global trade. This week, crude prices have moved above $100 a barrel amid disruptions linked to the war.

While the IMF’s latest forecast shows the global economy remains resilient despite all of these shocks, the Middle East war and higher oil prices carry far greater economic consequences for African economies. 

As markets have shown in the past six months, higher energy and transportation costs do not stop at the Middle East corridor. They transit through global supply chains and eventually affect the cost of fuel, food, shipping, manufacturing and consumer goods in African economies that are already dealing with currency pressures, debt and rising costs of living.

This 9/11 anniversary arrives at an inflection point of security, energy, trade and economics.

It’s is a conversation that Africa cannot afford to sit outside.

Remembering the African Victims

The tragedy of September 11 was never exclusively an American tragedy. The victims represented more than 90 nations, demonstrating the international character of New York and the global reach of the attacks.

Africans were among those who died. People with connections to African countries were working in the World Trade Center, traveling through the airports and living in the communities surrounding New York and Washington when the attacks happened.

But Africa’s connection to 9/11 goes much deeper than the nationality of those who died.

Three years before the 9/11 attacks, al-Qaeda had already demonstrated its ability to operate internationally from African soil, most notably with the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Nairobi, Kenya, and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.

The attacks killed more than 200 people and injured thousands.

Africa was therefore already part of the emerging global counterterrorism story before the towers fell in New York.

Today, it has become one of the continent most important chapters.

Africa Is Now Central to Global Counterterrorism Fight

The geography of terrorism has changed significantly since 2001.

While Afghanistan, Iraq and the broader Middle East dominated the post-9/11 security conversation for years, the Sahel has emerged as one of the world’s most dangerous places for terrorist activity.

According to a United Nations‘ report, sub-Saharan Africa now accounts for nearly 59% of terrorism-related deaths globally, while terrorism-related deaths in the Sahel, which now accounts for 19% of global terrorist attacks and more than half of terrorism-related casualties worldwide, have remained above 6,000 annually in recent years.

This makes the issue not simply an African security crisis anymore. It is a global security crisis.

Groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and Islamic State continue to operate across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin, while terrorist networks have increasingly expanded their footprint toward coastal West African countries in Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger, and Mali, with consequences far beyond terrorism itself.

When terrorist organizations gain territory, access to financing, weapons and recruits, the threat  then extend across borders as we have seen in some part of the region where conflicts drive displacement. These displacements disrupt agriculture and trade, creating instability in economies which ultimately leads to weak governments and a weak governments and institutions create a breeding ground and opportunities for criminal networks and extremists organizations. Economic hardship creates an environment in which extremist groups find it easier to recruit. The same is true when criminal networks become connected to extremist groups through trafficking, smuggling and other illicit activities.

The UN warned that terrorist networks operating in Africa have increasingly developed links beyond the continent, making the terrorism crisis a growing global security threat.

As late Defense Secretary Ash Carter said in an interview with the Africa Bazaar magazine in 2017, counterterrorism in Africa cannot simply mean more military operations on the ground . It must also mean stronger institutions, secure borders, intelligence cooperation, economic opportunity, education, job creation and the ability of governments to provide basic services.

For the rest of the world, it means recognizing that what happens in the Sahel does not remain in the Sahel.

Africa sits at the intersection of major global trade routes, energy markets and migration corridors. The continent’s proximity to Europe and the Middle East, combined with its enormous natural resources and rapidly growing population, means instability in the region will result in consequences far beyond its borders.

The lesson of 9/11 was that geography offers no guarantee of security. A terrorist network operating thousands of miles away can eventually strike a major global city.

Twenty-five years later, that same lesson applies to Africa.

From 9/11 to Iran: The Cost of War

President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump are expected to attend a service honoring those who died at the Pentagon, while Vice President JD Vance will join other U.S. former presidents, New York State and local officials, business leaders and families of loved ones who were killed in the attacks on the Twin Towers for a memorial service at Ground Zero in lower Manhattan.

Former President Bill Clinton said in a statement Friday, “Today, we remember all those who lost their lives in New York, Virginia and Pennsylvania on September 11, 2001, honor the courage of the first responders who risked and gave their lives to save others and renew our commitment to all the people who have borne the pain of the attacks over the last 25 years… We can’t erase the nightmare that so many have lived through and are still living with today, but we can support the people who have given and lost so much by treating one another with respect, in person and online and recognizing that what we have in common is far more important than what divides us.”

Former President Barack Obama also issued a statement paying tributes to the lives lost during the attacks and America’s unity and resilience spirit to stand up against malevolence and the resolve that nothing would break the will of a truly United States of America.

“Today, Michelle and I are remembering those we lost that day, and those who made the ultimate sacrifice in the wars that followed. We pray for their families, and we hope Americans everywhere that the true lesson of 9/11: that we can survive even our darkest days as long as we move forward as one national and one people,” Obama said in the statement.

Those words carry particular weight this year as the U.S yet again is engaged in a major war in the Middle East, which is already drawing comparisons with America’s post-9/11 wars because of the question of how a military campaign ends and what comes after it.

This comparison is not simply historical. It is economic, geopolitical and it is human.

The wars that followed 9/11 reshaped government budgets, defense spending, global alliances, energy markets and the entire global economy.

The current war with Iran is yet again creating another layer of uncertainty for businesses and consumers around the world.

In Africa, higher fuel prices, disrupted shipping routes, food inflation and tighter global financial conditions have translated into higher costs at home, putting additional fiscal pressure on economies that are already in tight financing squeeze.

Countries that depend heavily on imported fuel are seeing higher transportation and production costs. Higher fuel prices are also feeding into food prices. Governments and policymakers already under pressure to get the fiscal house in order, may have to step in with subsidies to protect consumers from the effects of rising energy prices.

This is why this year’s 25th anniversary of 9/11 matters beyond the memorial ceremonies in New York, Virginia and Pennsylvania. 

Africa’s role in global security deserves greater attention because what happens in Africa can affect the world just as what happens in the Middle East can affect Africa

The #1 Global Security Question

Twenty-five years after September 11, the world is confronting a familiar but increasingly complicated question: How does the international community prevent terrorism, violent extremism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction without creating another generation of wars and instability?

There is no simple answer. But one thing is clear: Global security can no longer be discussed without Africa.

From the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, from the Gulf of Guinea to the Red Sea, Africa is increasingly connected to the security, energy and economic systems that underpin the global economy.

The events of September 11 showed the world how quickly a threat in one part of the world can become a crisis everywhere.

Twenty-five years later, the same principle remains true.

As America gather today to remember the 2,977 people who lost their lives on September 11, 2001, the rest of the world is also being reminded that security is interconnected and that the stability of Africa is increasingly inseparable from the security and prosperity of the global community.

This anniversary also offers us an opportunity to look at how much the world has changed since that day and to consider what the next 25 years of global security will look like.

We cannot fail the more than 5,000 lives lost that day and in the aftermath war that followed.